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Reliability assessment of repairable closed-loop process systems under uncertainties.
Rui He1, Guoming Chen1, Xiaoyu Shen1
1Centre for Offshore Engineering and Safety Technology (COEST), China University of Petroleum (East China), No.66, Changjiang West Road, Qingdao, China.
This study introduces an integrated approach for assessing the dynamic reliability of repairable closed-loop systems, addressing uncertainties in maintenance decisions and hazard reduction. The method combines Bayesian inference, fuzzy theorem, and novel assessment techniques for improved system safety.
Area of Science:
- Engineering
- System Reliability
- Risk Management
Background:
- Traditional reliability assessment methods are often inadequate for complex closed-loop systems due to their unique structures, maintenance needs, and dynamic failure modes.
- Uncertainties in reliability data and expert knowledge pose significant challenges to accurate system reliability evaluation.
- Effective maintenance decisions and hazard frequency reduction are critical for system safety and operational efficiency.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop an integrated approach for dynamic reliability assessment of repairable closed-loop systems.
- To address and quantify uncertainties inherent in reliability data and expert estimations.
- To provide a robust framework for making informed maintenance decisions in complex systems.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Bayesian inference and fuzzy theorem to characterize system uncertainties and estimate component lifetime parameters.
- Proposed a closed-loop probabilistic reliability assessment (CPRA) method integrating cyclic and dynamic Bayesian networks.
- Developed a novel non-probabilistic reliability assessment (NPRA) approach using probabilistic methods and Monte Carlo simulation for maintenance decision-making.
Main Results:
- Successfully characterized system uncertainties and estimated component lifetime parameters.
- Demonstrated the effectiveness of the CPRA method for dynamic reliability assessment in closed-loop systems.
- Validated the proposed NPRA approach for optimizing maintenance decisions in repairable systems.
- Applied and verified the integrated approach on an offshore crude oil separation system.
Conclusions:
- The integrated approach effectively assesses the dynamic reliability of repairable closed-loop systems under uncertainty.
- The proposed CPRA and NPRA methods provide valuable tools for enhancing system safety and optimizing maintenance strategies.
- The study offers a practical framework for reliability assessment in complex industrial applications, exemplified by the offshore crude oil separation system.
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