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Mathematical modelling on phase based transmissibility of Coronavirus
1Department of Mathematics, Rayalaseema University, Kurnool, Andhra Pradesh, 518007, India.
Infectious Disease Modelling
|July 23, 2020
Summary
Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission reveals its spread dynamics. This study uses a phase-based model and the next-generation matrix to estimate the basic reproduction number, comparing COVID-19 to other respiratory illnesses.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
Background:
- Mathematical and epidemiological simulations are crucial for predicting and controlling epidemics.
- Understanding disease dynamics requires considering micro-host-pathogen interactions, host-to-host encounters, and socio-cultural factors.
- The novel coronavirus (COVID-19), identified as SARS-CoV-2, emerged in late 2019, posing a significant global public health challenge.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a phase-based mathematical model to specify the transmissibility of COVID-19.
- To model the spread from reservoir to individuals and between individuals.
- To calculate the basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19 using the next-generation matrix methodology.
Main Methods:
- Developed a Reservoir-individuals spreading set of connections model.
- Employed the next-generation matrix methodology to compute the basic reproduction number (R0).
- Estimated R0 values for reservoir-to-human and individual-to-individual transmission.
Main Results:
- The basic reproduction number (R0) was estimated to quantify COVID-19 transmissibility.
- COVID-19 spreading was found to be superior to Middle-East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) among Middle-Eastern nationals.
- COVID-19 spreading was found to be inferior to MERS within the Republic of Korea.
Conclusions:
- The developed mathematical model provides insights into COVID-19 transmission dynamics.
- The study highlights the importance of mathematical modeling in understanding and managing infectious disease outbreaks.
- Findings can be extended to analyze COVID-19 spread in other countries and inform public health strategies.
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