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Evidence and explanation in Cicero's On Divination
1Milkwaukee School of Engineering, Grohmann Museum 202, 304 E State St, Milwaukee, 53202, WI, United States.
Studies in History and Philosophy of Science
|August 11, 2020
Summary
This study re-examines Cicero's De Divinatione, analyzing arguments for and against divination. It introduces the Ciceronian Causal-Nomological Requirement (CCR) for scientific methodology, emphasizing causality in prediction.
Area of Science:
- Philosophy of Science
- Classical Philosophy
- History of Science
Background:
- Cicero's De Divinatione is often overlooked, despite its philosophical depth.
- The dialogue explores the complex arguments surrounding the practice and legitimacy of divination.
Purpose of the Study:
- To provide a novel analysis of arguments for divination presented by Quintus.
- To critically evaluate Marcus' arguments against divination using modern probabilistic tools.
- To formulate and defend the Ciceronian Causal-Nomological Requirement (CCR) as a principle of scientific methodology.
Main Methods:
- Logical analysis of argumentation structures in Cicero's De Divinatione.
- Application of modern probabilistic tools to assess skeptical arguments.
- Formulation and explication of a new principle of scientific methodology (CCR).
Main Results:
- Quintus' arguments for divination utilize two distinct logical forms.
- Marcus' skeptical response to divination is less decisive and proto-naturalistic than commonly assumed.
- The Ciceronian Causal-Nomological Requirement (CCR) is proposed, linking causal knowledge to predictive inference from correlations.
Conclusions:
- Marcus' application of the CCR in his debate was dialectically insufficient.
- Cicero's De Divinatione holds significant value within his philosophical works.
- The dialogue's importance for the history and philosophy of science warrants greater recognition.
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