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Conditionals and testimony.

Peter J Collins1, Karolina Krzyżanowska2, Stephan Hartmann3

  • 1Dept. of Psychological Sciences, Birkbeck, Univ. of London, United Kingdom; Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy, LMU Munich, Germany.

Cognitive Psychology
|August 18, 2020
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study explores how hearing conditional statements impacts belief formation. Behavioral data reveals these simple phenomena challenge current theories of conditional reasoning.

Keywords:
Bayesian modelingBelief updatingConditionalsReasoningTestimony

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Linguistics
  • Philosophy of Mind

Background:

  • Conditional reasoning is widely studied across disciplines.
  • However, how acquiring conditionals through testimony affects beliefs remains under-researched.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how hearing or reading a conditional statement influences an individual's beliefs.
  • To examine the implications of belief change from conditionals for existing theoretical accounts.

Main Methods:

  • Detailed basic intuitions regarding belief change after hearing a conditional.
  • Supported these intuitions with empirical behavioral data.

Main Results:

  • Identified fundamental challenges posed by belief acquisition via conditionals to current theories.
  • Demonstrated that existing theoretical accounts do not fully address these phenomena.

Conclusions:

  • The process of belief change in response to asserted conditionals is a critical, yet overlooked, aspect of conditional reasoning.
  • Current theoretical frameworks require significant revision to accommodate the impact of testimony on conditional beliefs.