Convergence Between Developed and Developing Countries: A Centennial Perspective.

Area of Science:

• Socio-economic development
• International comparative analysis
• Development economics

Background:

• Previous research on developing countries catching up to developed nations yields inconclusive results.
• Methodological differences in existing studies limit a comprehensive understanding of global development trends.
• A need exists for a broader analysis with extended time series and diverse indicators.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze whether developing countries are converging with or diverging from developed countries.
• To measure the development gap using the 'time lags' method across multiple indicators.
• To provide insights for setting targets within the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals.

Main Methods:

• Categorization of countries into 21 developed 'benchmark' nations and 156 developing nations.
• Application of the 'time lags' method to nine indicators (economy, health, education, environment).
• Utilizing a probabilistic approach for extrapolating missing historical data from 1920 to 2020 projections.

Main Results:

• Most developing countries and the population-weighted developing world have reduced their development lag between 1920 and 2020.
• Convergence was most significant in East Asia and Europe; divergence observed in many African and some American countries.
• Catch-up in education and life expectancy surpassed gains in infant survival, GDP per capita, and technology adoption.

Conclusions:

• The 'time lags' method offers a valuable tool for assessing development progress and informing Sustainable Development Goal targets.
• Uneven progress necessitates tailored strategies to address regional disparities in global development.
• Analysis identifies opportunities and risks for future catch-up, informing demographic, economic, and political strategies.