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First Prototype of the Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) Software for Prompt Identification of Infectious Diseases
F Baldassi1, O Cenciarelli2, A Malizia3
1Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy.
Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health
|September 22, 2020
Summary
This study developed the Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS), a novel software tool using regression analysis to predict and identify infectious disease outbreaks. IDS successfully recognized recent epidemics, aiding public health threat detection.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Computational Biology
Background:
- Timely detection of infectious disease outbreaks and pathogen identification are critical for public health.
- Infectious disease emergence is influenced by human (population density, travel) and ecological (climate change) factors.
- Existing surveillance relies on molecular diagnostics (e.g., real-time PCR) and online monitoring tools.
Purpose of the Study:
- To integrate a predictive tool into the existing infectious disease prevention and control system.
- To support decision-makers, healthcare workers, and first responders in early outbreak recognition.
- To develop a regressive prediction tool using an offline database of epidemiological parameters for high-consequence infectious diseases.
Main Methods:
- Developed a software prototype named Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS).
- Built an offline database containing specific epidemiological parameters for selected infectious diseases.
- Implemented the software using MATLAB®, focusing on database construction and software implementation stages.
Main Results:
- Tested the IDS prototype with epidemiological data from three recent outbreaks: SARS (2002-2003), plague (2017), and Ebola (2018).
- The software demonstrated promising outcomes in recognizing and characterizing these diverse outbreaks.
- The IDS successfully identified key epidemiological patterns within the tested outbreak data.
Conclusions:
- The Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) shows potential as a valuable tool for outbreak prediction and characterization.
- Future development aims to enhance IDS into a user-friendly predictive system for public health professionals.
- IDS can assist in predicting, assessing, and combating infectious disease outbreaks more effectively.
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