Different retinopathy phenotypes in type 2 diabetes predict retinopathy progression

To characterize the progression in retinopathy severity of different phenotypes of mild nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Patients with type 2 diabetes and mild NPDR (ETDRS 20 or 35) were followed in a 5-year longitudinal study. Examinations, including color fundus photography (CFP) and optical coherence tomography (OCT and OCTA), were performed at baseline, 6 months and then annually. Phenotype classification was performed based on microaneurysm turnover (MAT, on CFP) and central retinal thickness (CRT, on OCT). Phenotype A is characterized by low MAT (< 6) and normal CRT; Phenotype B by low MAT (< 6) and increased CRT; and Phenotype C by higher MAT (≥ 6) with or without increased CRT. ETDRS grading of seven fields CFP was performed at the initial and last visits.

Analysis of ETDRS grade step changes showed significant differences in diabetic retinopathy (DR) progression between the different phenotypes (p < 0.001). Of the 66 participants with phenotype A only 2 eyes (3%) presented 2-or-more-step worsening. None of the 50 participants characterized as phenotype B developed 2-step worsening, whereas 13 eyes (23.2%) characterized as phenotype C had 2-or-more-steps worsening. Phenotype C presents the higher risk for 2-or-more step worsening (OR: 15.94 95% CI: 3.45-73.71; p < 0.001) and higher sensitivity, correctly identifying 86.7% of cases at risk (AUC: 0.84 95% CI: 0.72-0.96; p < 0.001). Diabetic retinopathy severity progression was associated with HbA_1c (p = 0.019), LDL levels (p = 0.043), and ocular factors as MAT (p = 0.010), MA formation rate (p = 0.014) and MA disappearance rate (p = 0.005). Capillary closure at 5-year follow-up, identified by lower vessel density (VD) on OCTA, was also associated with diabetic DR severity progression (p = 0.035).

Different DR phenotypes in type 2 diabetes show different risks of retinopathy progression. Phenotype C is associated with increased HbA_1c values and presents a higher risk of a 2-or-more-step worsening of the ETDRS severity score.