Brazil: the emerging epicenter of COVID-19 pandemic

Five months after the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Brazil, the country has the second highest number of cases in the world. Without any scientifically proven drug or vaccine available combined with COVID-19's high transmissivity, slowing down the spread of the infection is a challenge. In an attempt to save the economy, the Brazilian government is slowly beginning to allow non-essential services to reopen for in-person customers.

In this study, we analyze, based on data analysis and statistics, how other countries evolve and under which conditions they decided to resume normal activity. In addition, due to the heterogeneity of Brazil, we explore Brazilian data of COVID-19 from the State Health Secretaries to evaluate the situation of the pandemic within the states.

Results show that while other countries have flattened their curves and present low numbers of active cases, Brazil continues to see an increase in COVID-19 patients. Furthermore, a number of important states are easing restrictions despite a high percentage of confirmed cases.

All analyses show that Brazil is not ready for reopening, and the premature easing of restrictions may increase the number of COVID-19-related deaths and cause the collapse of the public health system.