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Asynchrony between virus diversity and antibody selection limits influenza virus evolution
Dylan H Morris1, Velislava N Petrova2, Fernando W Rossine1
1Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, United States.
Elife
|November 11, 2020
Summary
Seasonal influenza viruses evolve antigenically, causing global disease. A mathematical model reveals that timing differences between virus growth and immune response limit within-host evolution, explaining why new variants are rare in individuals despite widespread circulation.
Area of Science:
- Virology
- Immunology
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
Background:
- Seasonal influenza viruses pose a significant global health challenge due to their continuous antigenic evolution, which allows them to evade pre-existing immunity from infections and vaccinations.
- Despite the emergence of new antigenic variants at the population level, these variants are seldom observed to be selected within individual hosts, even those with prior immunity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the mechanisms underlying the discrepancy between high-level antigenic evolution at the population level and low-level evolution within individual hosts for seasonal influenza viruses.
- To provide a theoretical framework explaining how influenza viruses can maintain high selective pressure globally while exhibiting near-neutral evolution within a single host.
Main Methods:
- Development and analysis of a mathematical model simulating within-host influenza virus dynamics and antibody-mediated selection.
- The model incorporates parameters such as virus growth rates, antibody efficacy, and the timing of immune responses relative to viral inoculation.
Main Results:
- Temporal asynchrony between the rapid exponential growth of influenza viruses within a host and the slower onset of antibody-mediated selection is identified as a key factor limiting within-host antigenic evolution.
- Selection for novel antigenic variants appears most effective during the initial inoculation phase when small viral populations encounter potent, well-matched mucosal antibodies in previously exposed individuals.
- This early-stage selection can confer protection against reinfection without necessarily generating detectable new antigenic variants within the infected host.
Conclusions:
- The study provides a theoretical explanation for why influenza virus evolution appears highly selective globally but nearly neutral within individual hosts.
- These findings suggest that the timing and nature of the immune response, particularly at the mucosal surface during initial infection, play a critical role in controlling influenza evolution.
- The results offer potential insights for developing improved influenza control strategies that target these within-host evolutionary dynamics.
Keywords:
Influenza virusantibody-mediated selectioncross scale evolutionary dynamicsevolutionary biologyinfectious diseasemicrobiologyvirusMore Related Videos
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