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COVID-19 and conflict.

Jeffrey R Bloem1, Colette Salemi2

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|November 17, 2020
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

The coronavirus pandemic initially decreased global conflict, particularly protests, but conflict levels have since returned to pre-pandemic levels. Country-level variations in conflict dynamics persist despite policy responses.

Keywords:
Armed ConflictCOVID-19GovernanceProtestsRiotsViolence

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Area of Science:

  • Political Science
  • Sociology
  • International Relations

Background:

  • The coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) presented unprecedented global challenges.
  • Understanding its impact on inter-group conflict is crucial for global stability.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses on various forms of global conflict.
  • To identify trends and variations in conflict events before, during, and after the pandemic's initial spread.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized time series analysis of conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project.
  • Examined violent conflict events (battles, bombings, violence against civilians) and civil demonstrations (protests, riots).
  • Assessed changes in conflict trends correlated with country-level policy responses like lockdowns and ceasefires.

Main Results:

  • Observed a short-term global decline in conflict, primarily due to a significant reduction in protest events.
  • Conflict levels globally have since rebounded to pre-pandemic levels.
  • Significant heterogeneity in conflict trends was noted across different countries.

Conclusions:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic had a temporary, globally synchronized impact on conflict, largely driven by decreased protest activity.
  • Country-specific contexts and policy responses create complex, varied effects on conflict dynamics.
  • Establishing direct causal links between specific pandemic policies and conflict changes remains challenging due to contextual factors.