Annual Myopia Progression and Subsequent 2-Year Myopia Progression in Singaporean Children

To investigate the association between 1-year myopia progression and subsequent 2-year myopia progression among myopic children in the Singapore Cohort Study of the Risk Factors for Myopia.

This retrospective analysis included 618 myopic children (329 male), 7 to 9 years of age (mean age, 8.0 ± 0.8) at baseline with at least two annual follow-up visits. Cycloplegic autorefraction was performed at every visit. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves from multiple logistic regressions were derived for future fast 2-year myopia progression.

Children with slow progression during the first year (slower than -0.50 diopter [D]/y) had the slowest mean subsequent 2-year myopia progression (-0.41 ± 0.33 D/y), whereas children with fast progression (faster than -1.25 D/y) in year 1 had the fastest mean subsequent 2-year myopia progression (-0.82 ± 0.30 D/y) (P for trend < 0.001). Year 1 myopia progression had the highest area under the curve (AUC) for predicting fast subsequent 2-year myopia progression (AUC = 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.80) compared to baseline spherical equivalent (AUC = 0.70; 95% CI, 0.66-0.74) or age of myopia onset (AUC = 0.66; 95% CI, 0.61-0.70) after adjusting for confounders. Age at baseline alone had an AUC of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.61-0.69).

One-year myopia progression and age at baseline were associated with subsequent 2-year myopia progression in children 7 to 9 years of age.

Myopia progression and age at baseline may be considered by eye care practitioners as two of several factors that may be associated with future myopia progression in children.