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Bidirectional contact tracing could dramatically improve COVID-19 control.

William J Bradshaw1,2, Ethan C Alley2,3, Jonathan H Huggins4

  • 1Max Planck Institute for Biology of Ageing, Joseph-Stelzmann-Str. 296, 50937, Cologne, Germany.

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Bidirectional contact tracing, which identifies both infected individuals and their contacts, significantly enhances COVID-19 control. This method more than doubles the reduction in the effective reproduction number (Reff) compared to traditional forward tracing alone.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • Contact tracing is essential for managing infectious disease outbreaks like COVID-19.
  • Current protocols predominantly use "forward tracing" to notify exposed individuals.
  • Limitations exist in current methods regarding efficiency and scope.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the effectiveness of "bidirectional tracing" in controlling COVID-19 outbreaks.
  • To compare bidirectional tracing with traditional forward tracing using a mathematical model.
  • To identify optimal strategies for enhancing contact tracing efficacy.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a stochastic branching-process model to simulate COVID-19 transmission dynamics.
  • Modeled both forward tracing and bidirectional tracing scenarios.
  • Assessed the impact of varying tracing windows and exposure notification uptake.

Main Results:

  • Bidirectional tracing more than doubles the reduction in the effective reproduction number (Reff) compared to forward tracing alone.
  • Bidirectional tracing significantly improves resilience to challenges like low case ascertainment and reduced test sensitivity.
  • Expanding manual tracing to 6 days pre-symptom-onset or achieving near-universal smartphone exposure notification yields substantial gains.

Conclusions:

  • Bidirectional contact tracing offers a robust strategy for improving COVID-19 outbreak control.
  • The approach enhances epidemic control irrespective of exposure notification technology adoption.
  • Implementing bidirectional tracing is recommended for more effective public health interventions.