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A model of optimal timing for a predictive adaptive response.
Hamish G Spencer1, Anthony B Pleasants2, Peter D Gluckman3
1Department of Zoology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.
Journal of Developmental Origins of Health and Disease
|January 13, 2021
Summary
Predictive adaptive responses (PARs) are unusual developmental strategies. Our models suggest PARs typically lack delays or anticipation, contrary to observed cases, unless specific costly conditions are met.
Area of Science:
- Developmental biology
- Evolutionary biology
- Mathematical modeling
Background:
- Predictive adaptive responses (PARs) involve delayed developmental plasticity.
- PARs allow phenotypes to anticipate future environmental states for adaptive advantage.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model PARs and determine optimal durations for developmental delay and anticipation.
- To identify conditions under which PARs, with their characteristic delays and anticipation, evolve.
Main Methods:
- Mathematical modeling of developmental plasticity.
- Analysis of optimal timing for development based on environmental cues and costs.
Main Results:
- Models predict zero delay and zero anticipation in many scenarios.
- Development completion often coincides with environmental change, not prior anticipation.
- Non-zero delays/anticipation are predicted only when development is costly or timing is constrained.
Conclusions:
- Observed PARs with delays and anticipation are rare under typical modeling assumptions.
- PARs likely evolve under specific conditions: strict timing, costly delays, or variable intervals with high penalty for incomplete development.
- Predictions offer testable hypotheses for empirical research on PARs.
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