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Lake heatwaves under climate change.

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Lake heatwaves, periods of extreme warm surface water, will intensify and lengthen globally due to climate change. This poses significant risks to lake biodiversity and ecosystem services.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Climate Science
  • Limnology

Background:

  • Lake ecosystems are vulnerable to temperature changes and thermal extremes.
  • Little is known about lake heatwaves and their future under global warming.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Investigate changes in lake heatwaves globally from 1901 to 2099.
  • Project future lake heatwave intensity and duration under different emission scenarios.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized satellite observations and a numerical model.
  • Analyzed hundreds of lakes worldwide.

Main Results:

  • Lake heatwaves projected to become significantly hotter and longer by 2100.
  • Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, intensity increases to 5.4°C and duration to 95.5 days.
  • Under RCP 2.6, intensity increases to 4.0°C and duration to 27.0 days.
  • Deeper lakes experience longer-lasting but less intense heatwaves.

Conclusions:

  • Lake heatwaves will exacerbate warming effects, impacting lake physical and chemical properties.
  • Increased heatwave duration may lead to permanent heatwave states in some lakes.
  • Threatens aquatic biodiversity, ecosystem resilience, and vital societal benefits provided by lakes.