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Simulating Land-Use Changes and Predicting Maize Potential Yields in Northeast China for 2050
Luoman Pu1, Jiuchun Yang2, Lingxue Yu2
1School of Politics and Public Administration, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China.
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
|January 27, 2021
Summary
Future land-use changes in Northeast China will decrease maize potential yields. Proactive land management is crucial for ensuring regional food security despite these shifts.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Environmental Science
- Geospatial Analysis
Background:
- Cropland resource utilization is reflected in crop potential yields.
- Changes in cropland quantity, quality, and spatial distribution directly impact crop potential yields.
- Simulating future cropland distribution and predicting crop potential yields are vital for ensuring food security.
Purpose of the Study:
- To simulate land-use changes in Northeast China from 2015 to 2050 using the Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov model.
- To predict maize potential yields in Northeast China for 2050 using the Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) model.
- To explore the spatio-temporal changes of maize potential yields during 2015-2050.
Main Methods:
- Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov model for land-use change simulation.
- Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) model for maize potential yield prediction.
- Spatio-temporal analysis of land-use and yield changes.
Main Results:
- Woodland and grassland decreased significantly, mainly converting to unused land; dryland converted to paddy field and built-up land.
- By 2050, Northeast China's total maize potential production was projected at 218.09 million tonnes with an average yield of 6880.59 kg/ha.
- Total maize potential production and average yield are predicted to decrease by approximately 23 million tonnes and 700 kg/ha, respectively, between 2015 and 2050.
Conclusions:
- Land-use changes significantly impact future crop potential yields in Northeast China.
- Active management of land-use changes, balancing farmland occupation and compensation, is essential.
- Improving cropland quality and implementing adaptive strategies are crucial for ensuring regional food security.
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