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Modeling and Managing Poliovirus Risks: We are Where we are…
1Kid Risk Inc., Orlando, FL, USA.
Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|February 16, 2021
Summary
Global polio eradication efforts faced challenges in 2020, with the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) needing updated risk modeling. The COVID-19 pandemic will significantly alter the polio endgame trajectory, requiring future analysis.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health Modeling
- Infectious Disease Control
Background:
- The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) aims to eradicate poliovirus worldwide.
- Risk analysis is crucial for supporting GPEI's strategic objectives.
- Polio eradication efforts were off track prior to 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Purpose of the Study:
- Provide context on the current status of global polio eradication.
- Introduce the papers within the third special issue on poliovirus risk modeling.
- Highlight the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on polio eradication.
Main Methods:
- Review of current global polio eradication status.
- Introduction to risk analysis methodologies in the context of GPEI.
- Overview of research presented in the special issue.
Main Results:
- Polio eradication efforts faced significant challenges and were not on schedule by early 2020.
- The COVID-19 pandemic introduces new, substantial disruptions to the polio endgame.
- Future research is necessary to quantify the pandemic's impact on polio eradication.
Conclusions:
- Continued reliance on risk analysis is essential for the GPEI.
- The COVID-19 pandemic necessitates a re-evaluation of polio eradication strategies and timelines.
- Understanding the pandemic's disruptions is critical for achieving the polio endgame.
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