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Multihazards Scenario Generator: A Network-Based Simulation of Natural Disasters.
Alexandre Dunant1, Mark Bebbington2, Tim Davies1
1Department of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.
Understanding natural disaster interactions is crucial. This study introduces a network-based framework to model multihazard impacts, improving risk assessment and emergency planning for complex catastrophes.
Area of Science:
- Earth and Environmental Sciences
- Disaster Risk Science
- Computational Social Science
Background:
- Increasing frequency and impact of natural disasters globally.
- Limited quantification of dynamic interactions in multihazard events.
- Underestimation of risk and misinformed priorities due to simplified impact assessments.
Purpose of the Study:
- To demonstrate a novel framework for generating and modeling complex multihazard scenarios.
- To improve the accuracy of impact assessments for natural catastrophes.
- To support emergency planning and resilience evaluation.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing graph theory and network analysis to model hazard interactions.
- Creating a hazard network by combining maximal hazard footprints and exposed infrastructure nodes.
- Employing iterative network simulations based on actual hazard magnitudes to determine compounded impacts.
Main Results:
- The framework successfully generates multihazard scenarios with quantifiable impacts.
- Outputs allow for the study of distributional ranges of multihazard impacts.
- Calibration with the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake demonstrated the method's ability to reproduce real-world impact scales, including cascading landslides.
Conclusions:
- The proposed network-based framework effectively models dynamic interactions in multihazard events.
- This approach enhances the accuracy of risk assessment and emergency management strategies.
- The method provides a valuable tool for understanding and preparing for complex natural disasters.
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