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New Methods for Evaluating Energy Infrastructure Development Risks.

Michael J Ford1, Ahmed Abdulla2

  • 1Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL, USA.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|March 19, 2021
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Most new nuclear power deployment occurs in developed nations, yet future low-carbon electricity demand growth is highest in developing nations. New methods assess national readiness for complex energy infrastructure deployment.

Keywords:
Infrastructure developmentdata envelopment analysisdeep decarbonizationreadiness assessment

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Area of Science:

  • Energy policy
  • Nuclear engineering
  • Economic analysis

Background:

  • Reliable, low-carbon electricity generation is crucial but often requires significant technical, economic, and institutional capacity.
  • Advanced energy technologies like advanced nuclear and carbon capture are complex, expensive, and face scrutiny, limiting their deployment to nations with robust capabilities.
  • The need for low-carbon energy and modular technology development may expand markets to nations with less institutional capacity.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop novel methods for evaluating national readiness for complex energy infrastructure deployment, using advanced nuclear technologies as a case study.
  • To benchmark national performance in deploying complex energy infrastructure without relying on expert judgment.
  • To identify disparities in deployment readiness and potential demand growth across nations.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to objectively benchmark national performance.
  • Analyzed institutional and economic performance metrics across various nations.
  • Correlated deployment data with national performance quartiles.

Main Results:

  • Approximately 80% of new nuclear power deployment is concentrated in nations within the top two quartiles of institutional and economic performance.
  • Nations in the bottom two quartiles of performance account for 85% of potential low-carbon electricity demand growth.
  • Significant gaps exist between deployment capacity and future demand in developing nations.

Conclusions:

  • Current advanced nuclear deployment is concentrated in high-capacity nations, contrasting with the location of future demand growth.
  • New methods can objectively assess national readiness for complex energy infrastructure, highlighting risk areas.
  • Tailored deployment strategies are needed for nations with lower institutional capacity to mitigate risks and meet growing low-carbon energy needs.