On Modeling Worldviews in Quantitative Decision Support

To inform decisions under deep uncertainty, risk analysts need to consider how best to deal with the fact that stakeholders often do not share specific concerns or fundamental perspectives. Lempert and Turner propose that deliberation can improve if models incorporate three worldviews defined in social science theory. This commentary suggests that competence and legitimacy are more likely to emerge from deliberation when models are built inductively, inquiring first about stakeholders' decision-relevant concerns and then developing models to speak to them. The added complexity of Lempert and Turner's modeling approach presents difficult tradeoffs with accessibility and trust.