Using Deep Learning for Individual-Level Predictions of Adherence with Growth Hormone Therapy

The problem of consistent therapy adherence is a current challenge for health informatics, and its solution can increase the success rate of treatments. Here we show a methodology to predict, at individual-level, future therapy adherence for patients receiving daily injections of growth hormone (GH) therapy for GH deficiency. Our proposed model is able to generate predictions of future adherence using a recurrent neural network with adherence data recorded by easypodTM, a connected autoinjection device. The model was trained with a multi-year long dataset with 2500 patients, from January 2007 to June 2019. When testing, the model reached an average sensitivity of 0.70 and a specificity of 0.88 per patient when predicting non-adherence (<85%) periods. When evaluated with thousands of therapy segments extracted from a test set, our model reached an AUC-PR score of 0.79 and AUC-ROC of 0.90; both metrics were consistently better than traditional approaches, such as simple average model. Using this model, we can perform precise early identification of patients who are likely to become non-adherent patients. This opens a path for healthcare practitioners to personalize GH therapy at any stage of the patients' journey and improve shared decision making with patients and caregivers to achieve optimal outcomes.