On the climate benefit of a coal-to-gas shift in Germany's electric power sector

Methane emissions along the natural gas supply chain are critical for the climate benefit achievable by fuel switching from coal to natural gas in the electric power sector. For Germany, one of the world's largest primary energy consumers, with a coal and natural gas share in the power sector of 35% and 13%, respectively, we conducted fleet-conversion modelling for reference year 2018, taking domestic and export country specific greenhouse gas (GHG)-emissions in the natural gas and coal supply chains into account. Methane leakage rates below 4.9% (GWP₂₀; immediate 4.1%) in the natural gas supply chain lead to overall reduction of CO₂-equivalent GHG-emissions by fuel switching. Supply chain methane emissions vary significantly for the import countries Russia, Norway and The Netherlands, yet for Germany's combined natural gas mix lie with << 1% far below specific break-even leakage rates. Supply chain emission scenarios demonstrate that a complete shift to natural gas would emit 30-55% (GWP₂₀ and GWP₁₀₀, respectively) less CO₂-equivalent GHG than from the coal mix. However, further abating methane emissions in the petroleum sector should remain a prime effort, when considering natural gas as bridge fuel on the path to achieve the Paris climate goals.