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Author Spotlight: Advancements in Multiplex Detection of Respiratory Viruses
Published on: November 10, 2023
Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context
Subhendu Paul1, Emmanuel Lorin2,3
1School of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton University, Ottawa, K1S 5B6, Canada. subhendu.paul@carleton.ca.
Abstract:
We propose a novel model based on a set of coupled delay differential equations with fourteen delays in order to accurately estimate the incubation period of COVID-19, employing publicly available data of confirmed corona cases. In this goal, we separate the total cases into fourteen groups for the corresponding fourteen incubation periods. The estimated mean incubation period we obtain is 6.74 days (95% Confidence Interval(CI): 6.35 to 7.13), and the 90th percentile is 11.64 days (95% CI: 11.22 to 12.17), corresponding to a good agreement with statistical supported studies. This model provides an almost zero-cost computational complexity to estimate the incubation period.
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