Integrated Climate-Change Assessment Scenarios and Carbon Dioxide Removal.

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Environmental Science
• Sustainable Development

Background:

• Global efforts to combat climate change necessitate reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to net zero this century.
• Balancing residual emissions with atmospheric CO2 removal (CDR) through natural or technological carbon sinks is crucial.
• Current projections for large-scale CDR rely on an integrated scenario framework developed prior to systematic CDR literature.

Purpose of the Study:

• To provide an overview of scenario purposes in climate change research.
• To introduce the integrated scenario framework used for emission scenarios and its origins.
• To discuss CDR studies within this framework, including limitations and future developments.

Main Methods:

• Literature review of scenarios in climate change research.
• Analysis of the integrated scenario framework for emission profiles and socio-economic trends.
• Discussion of CDR studies and their limitations within the existing framework.

Main Results:

• Scenarios are essential tools for understanding climate change pathways and CDR requirements.
• The integrated scenario framework provides a basis for projecting CDR demand.
• Existing CDR studies highlight limitations within the current scenario framework.

Conclusions:

• The integrated scenario framework is foundational for CDR research but requires updates.
• Future developments should enhance the framework's ability to incorporate systematic CDR reviews.
• Refining scenario frameworks is vital for accurate projections of CDR needs to meet climate goals.