The Context-Dependent Effects of Host Competence, Competition, and Pathogen Transmission Mode on Disease Prevalence

AbstractBiodiversity in communities is changing globally, including the gain and loss of host species in host-pathogen communities. Increased host diversity can cause infection prevalence in a focal host to increase (amplification) or decrease (dilution). However, it is unclear what general rules govern the context-dependent effects, in part because theories for pathogens with different transmission modes have developed largely independently. Using a two-host model, we explore how the pathogen transmission mode and characteristics of a second host (disease competence and competitive ability) influence disease prevalence in a focal host. Our work shows how the theories for pathogens with environmental transmission, density-dependent direct transmission, and frequency-dependent direct transmission can be unified. Our work also identifies general rules about how host and pathogen characteristics affect amplification/dilution. For example, higher-competence hosts promote amplification, unless they are strong interspecific competitors; strong interspecific competitors promote dilution, unless they are large sources of new infections; and dilution occurs under frequency-dependent direct transmission more than density-dependent direct transmission, unless interspecific host competition is sufficiently strong. Our work helps explain how the characteristics of the pathogen and a second host affect disease prevalence in a focal host.