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Improving drought resilience in Northern Murray-Darling Basin farming communities: Is forecast-based financing
Atifa Asghari1,2, Yuriy Kuleshov2,3,4, Andrew B Watkins2
1Monash University, Clayton, Victoria Australia.
Natural Hazards (Dordrecht, Netherlands)
|August 23, 2021
Summary
Forecast-based Financing (FbF) is not recommended for Australian farmers due to market disruption. An Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought can improve decision-making and resilience.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Climate Science
- Disaster Risk Reduction
Background:
- Southern Australia experiences increasingly drier conditions during the cool season, impacting farming communities.
- Droughts pose significant financial risks to agricultural businesses.
- Forecast-based Financing (FbF) offers proactive aid to enhance resilience between drought warnings and onset.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the potential of FbF combined with a user-centred Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought to improve drought resilience in Australian farming communities.
- To identify factors contributing to the vulnerability of farming businesses to drought.
Main Methods:
- Case study in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin.
- Analysis of farming business characteristics and responses to drought.
- Evaluation of FbF and I-EWS effectiveness.
Main Results:
- Farming businesses most affected by drought exhibit lower management skills, preparedness, and slower response times.
- Direct financial assistance through FbF may disrupt the Australian market economy and disincentivize adaptive strategies.
- A user-centred I-EWS for drought can enhance decision-making for farmers, service providers, and government.
Conclusions:
- Current FbF models are not suitable for Australia's market economy.
- Proactive drought management through an Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) is crucial for enhancing farming community resilience.
- Improved decision-making tools are essential for adapting to increasing drought impacts.
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