Communicating expert consensus increases personal support for COVID-19 mitigation policies.

Area of Science:

• Psychology
• Public Health
• Science Communication

Background:

• The Gateway Belief Model (GBM) posits that perceived scientific consensus is a crucial factor influencing public attitudes and policy support.
• Previous research has not fully tested the GBM as originally outlined, necessitating further investigation in new contexts.

Purpose of the Study:

• To comprehensively evaluate and extend the Gateway Belief Model (GBM) within the novel domain of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• To examine the cascading effects of perceived scientific consensus on personal beliefs, concern, and policy support.

Main Methods:

• A large-scale, multi-country correlational study (N=7,206) was conducted to assess the relationships between variables.
• A large, pre-registered survey experiment (N=1,856) was employed to establish causal links.

Main Results:

• Perceptions of scientific consensus on COVID-19 threat positively predicted personal threat perception and worry.
• Personal threat perception and worry were positively associated with support for COVID-19 mitigation policies.
• Experimentally increasing perceived consensus led to greater policy support, mediated by increased personal agreement with the consensus.

Conclusions:

• The findings provide strong support for the Gateway Belief Model (GBM) in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Perceived scientific consensus acts as a significant gateway cognition, influencing individual responses and policy support.
• The results highlight the critical role of communicating expert consensus in public health messaging and science communication efforts.