Increasing Preparedness for Extreme Events using Plausibility-Based Scenario Planning: Lessons from COVID-19

Area of Science:

• Risk analysis
• Policy studies
• Pandemic preparedness

Background:

• COVID-19 highlighted global underpreparedness for pandemics.
• Government planning horizons are short-term, limiting focus on long-term threats.
• Uncertainty regarding pandemic nature, timing, and impact hinders preparedness.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore how plausibility-based scenario planning can enhance preparedness for extreme events like pandemics.
• To address the limitations of traditional risk assessment for low-probability, high-impact events.
• To contribute to "type B" risk science focused on uncertainty communication.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of policy-making limitations in preparedness.
• Exploration of plausibility-based scenario planning as a risk management tool.
• Literature review on risk science and uncertainty communication.

Main Results:

• Low perceived probability and high uncertainty inhibit pandemic preparedness.
• Plausibility-based scenario planning offers a method to address extreme event uncertainty.
• This approach can reduce overconfidence in "business-as-usual" and promote precaution.

Conclusions:

• Plausibility-based scenario planning is a valuable, underutilized method for enhancing pandemic preparedness.
• Effective communication of uncertainty is crucial for improving risk management of extreme events.
• Adopting precaution is essential in the aftermath of pandemics.