Evaluation of the estimation and classification performance of NONMEM when applying mixture model for drug clearance

Maximum likelihood estimation of parameters involving mixture model is known to have significant and specific patterns of errors. Population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) modeling using NONMEM is no exception. A few relevant studies on estimation and classification performance were done, but a comprehensive study was not yet available. The current study aims to evaluate performance and likelihood ratio test (LRT)-based true covariate detection rate when fitting a bimodal mixture of drug clearance (CL) in NONMEM. A large number of PopPK datasets with various settings were simulated and then estimated. The estimates were compared to the simulated values and summarized. The separation between the CL distributions of the two subpopulations is systematically overestimated. The major factor associated with the performance is the change in the minimum objective function value after removing the mixture component (dOFV). Other significant factors include estimated disparity index (DI), estimated mixing proportion, and number of subjects in the dataset. Small dOFV and large estimated DI are associated with the worst performance. Omitting a true mixture resulted in reduced true covariate detection rates. It is recommended that on top of routinely generated standard errors and model diagnostics, dOFV, and other factors when necessary, should be taken into account for the evaluation of performance when fitting mixture model using NONMEM. In addition, when fitting mixture model for CL is intended, the mixture component should be introduced prior to LRT-based covariate model development for CL.