Revisiting the Open Sampling format: Improving risky choices through a novel graphical representation.

Area of Science:

• Decision Science
• Cognitive Psychology
• Behavioral Economics

Background:

• Individuals often deviate from expected value (EV) maximization when making risky choices.
• The Open Sampling (OSa) format, a 10x10 matrix, has been proposed to enhance decision-making and reduce time.

Purpose of the Study:

• To replicate and extend findings on the OSa format by comparing it with description-based and other graphical formats.
• To investigate the impact of presentation formats on EV maximization and decision time.
• To examine if individuals with lower numeracy particularly benefit from graphical option representations.

Main Methods:

• Five high-powered studies (N=1,575) involving repeated choices between risky gambles.
• Comparison of Open Sampling (OSa) format, a novel OSa variant with grouped outcomes, description-based, and other graphical formats.
• Assessment of EV accordance, decision time, and numeracy's moderating role.

Main Results:

• The standard OSa format did not improve EV accordance across five studies.
• A novel OSa variant with grouped outcomes consistently enhanced EV accordance compared to all other formats.
• Graphical formats generally led to faster decisions without compromising decision quality.
• Numeracy did not significantly moderate the effects of presentation format in most studies.

Conclusions:

• A novel grouped outcome presentation format significantly improves risky decision-making and EV accordance.
• Graphical formats accelerate decision-making processes.
• The findings introduce a promising format for communicating risks in applied settings, such as medical decision-making.