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Compound climate events increase tree drought mortality across European forests
Antonio Gazol1, J Julio Camarero1
1Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE-CSIC), E-50059 Zaragoza, Spain.
The Science of the Total Environment
|November 15, 2021
Summary
Compound climate events, like hot summers and dry years, are increasingly linked to forest defoliation and mortality across Europe. These events, driven by climate change, are expected to increase future forest drought mortality, especially in Southern and Eastern Europe.
Area of Science:
- Forest ecology and climate change impacts.
- Analysis of extreme weather events and their effects on forest health.
Background:
- Climate change is increasing the frequency of compound extreme events, such as simultaneous droughts and heat waves.
- The impacts of these compound events on forest defoliation and mortality are not fully understood.
- Forests in Europe are vulnerable to increased drought stress and rising temperatures.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of compound climate events (hot summers and dry years) on forest defoliation and mortality in Europe.
- To analyze the co-occurrence of tree drought mortality and background mortality rates with these compound events.
- To assess the historical trends and future projections of forest drought mortality.
Main Methods:
- Utilized two independent datasets: a tree drought mortality database and ICP-Forest level I plots.
- Focused on analyzing tree drought mortality, background mortality rates, and their correlation with compound climate events.
- Examined defoliation and mortality data in relation to elevated vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and dry conditions.
Main Results:
- 46% of European tree mortality events coincided with rare compound events of hot summers and dry years.
- 34% of severe defoliation and 27% of mortality cases in ICP-Forest plots were linked to compound climate events.
- Increased background mortality rates were observed in regions with rising summer temperatures, VPD, and drought frequency.
Conclusions:
- Compound climate events are a significant driver of forest defoliation and mortality across Europe.
- Observed increases in summer temperatures and VPD, particularly in Southern and Eastern Europe, are likely to promote future compound events.
- An increase in forest drought mortality is anticipated in vulnerable European regions due to these climate trends.
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