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Vaccinating Children Against COVID-19 is Essential Prior to the Removal of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
Erik Rosenstrom1, Jessica Mele1, Julie Ivy1
1Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States of America.
Insights
High vaccination rates in children and adults are crucial to prevent increased COVID-19 infections and severe outcomes following the removal of mask mandates in schools and workplaces.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology and Public Health
- Infectious Disease Modeling
- Health Policy Analysis
Background:
- COVID-19 transmission dynamics are influenced by vaccination coverage and non-pharmaceutical interventions like masking.
- Understanding the interplay between these factors is vital for effective public health strategies.
Approach:
- A stochastic, agent-based simulation model of North Carolina was developed.
- The model evaluated 24 health policy decisions, including vaccination rates and masking policies, from July 2021 to July 2023.
- The simulation assessed impacts on disease incidence, hospitalizations, and mortality.
Key Points:
- Universal mask removal in schools could increase cumulative infections by 15.9-47% across age groups.
- Increased child vaccination uptake, especially without adult uptake, significantly decreases peak hospitalizations.
- High vaccination uptake across all eligible populations reduces peak hospitalizations substantially, irrespective of masking scenarios.
Conclusions:
- High vaccination coverage in both children and adults is essential.
- Vaccination is necessary to counteract potential infection surges from mask mandate removals in educational and occupational settings.
Objectivess:
To evaluate the joint impact of childhood vaccination rates and masking policies, in schools and workplaces, on community transmission and severe outcomes due to COVID-19.
Study Design:
We utilized a stochastic, agent-based simulation of North Carolina, to evaluate the impact of 24 health policy decisions on overall incidence of disease, COVID-19 related hospitalization, and mortality from July 1, 2021-July 1, 2023.
Results:
Universal mask removal in schools in January 2022 could lead to a 38.1-47%, 27.6-36.2%, and 15.9-19.7% increase in cumulative infections for ages 5-9, 10-19, and the total population, respectively, depending on the rate of vaccination of children relative to the adult population. Additionally, without increased vaccination uptake in the adult population, a 25% increase in child vaccination uptake from 50% to 75% uptake and from 75% to 100% uptake relative to the adult population, leads to a 22% and 18% or 28% and 33% decrease in peak hospitalizations in 2022 across scenarios when masks are removed either January 1st or March 8th 2022, respectively. Increasing vaccination uptake for the entire eligible population can reduce peak hospitalizations in 2022 by an average of 89% and 92% across all masking scenarios compared to the scenarios where no children are vaccinated.
Conclusions:
High vaccination uptake among both children and adults is necessary to mitigate the increase in infections from mask removal in schools and workplaces.
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