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Proposed Prediction Model and Nomogram for Systemic Complications in Patients Undergoing Free Flap Head and Neck
John-Patrik M Burkhard1,2, Roland Giger3, Markus B Huber1
1Department of Anaesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Inselspital, University Hospital Bern, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Frontiers in Surgery
|December 31, 2021
Summary
This study developed a predictive model to reduce postoperative complications in head and neck free flap reconstructions. The model identifies modifiable risk factors like furosemide use and blood loss to improve patient outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Surgical Oncology
- Plastic Surgery
- Head and Neck Surgery
Background:
- Postoperative complications are common in head and neck free flap reconstructions.
- A predictive model for these complications is currently lacking.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a predictive model for postoperative systemic complications (PSC) in head and neck free flap reconstructions.
- To create a nomogram to guide clinicians in identifying and mitigating risks.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective observational study of 131 patients undergoing ablative surgery and free flap reconstruction.
- Ordinal regression analysis to identify predictors of PSC.
- Development of a nomogram based on identified risk factors.
Main Results:
- Key predictors for PSC included furosemide administration, blood loss, smoking, and flap type.
- The developed nomogram demonstrated acceptable discrimination (Somer's delta: 0.52).
Conclusions:
- The proposed nomogram can aid clinicians in identifying modifiable risk factors.
- Application of the nomogram may reduce the incidence of postoperative complications in microvascular head and neck reconstructions.

