Braiding Braak and Braak: Staging patterns and model selection in network neurodegeneration

A hallmark of Alzheimer's disease is the aggregation of insoluble amyloid-beta plaques and tau protein neurofibrillary tangles. A key histopathological observation is that tau protein aggregates follow a structured progression pattern through the brain. Mathematical network models of prion-like propagation have the ability to capture such patterns, but a number of factors impact the observed staging result, thus introducing questions regarding model selection. Here, we introduce a novel approach, based on braid diagrams, for studying the structured progression of a marker evolving on a network. We apply this approach to a six-stage 'Braak pattern' of tau proteins, in Alzheimer's disease, motivated by a recent observation that seed-competent tau precedes tau aggregation. We show that the different modeling choices, from the model parameters to the connectome resolution, play a significant role in the landscape of observable staging patterns. Our approach provides a systematic way to approach model selection for network propagation of neurodegenerative diseases that ensures both reproducibility and optimal parameter fitting.