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Progressing the aerospace performance factor toward nonlinear interactions.

Oldřich Štumbauer1, Andrej Lališ1

  • 1Faculty of Transportation Sciences, Czech Technical University, Prague, Czech Republic.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|January 14, 2022
PubMed
Summary

This study enhances the Aerospace Performance Factor (APF) method by incorporating nonlinear relationships between safety indicators. This improved quantitative approach offers a more accurate assessment of aviation safety performance.

Keywords:
aerospace performance factorair traffic managementanalytical hierarchy processkey performance indicatorssafety performance

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Area of Science:

  • Aviation Safety
  • Risk Management
  • Quantitative Analysis

Background:

  • Evaluating safety performance is crucial for effective risk management.
  • Quantitative tools for safety performance evaluation are limited.
  • The Aerospace Performance Factor (APF) is a recognized method but lacks nonlinear relationship analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To address the limitation of the APF method regarding nonlinear relations among safety performance indicators.
  • To propose an enhancement to the APF method by integrating the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with new decision criteria.
  • To improve the accuracy of safety performance assessment by considering the impact of indicators on each other.

Main Methods:

  • The study extends the APF method by incorporating the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP).
  • New decision criteria were added to AHP to assess the impact of each performance indicator on others, irrespective of hierarchy.
  • The enhanced method was tested using aviation data from the European Central Repository (ECR) in the UK (2013-2015) and data from Finland and Denmark.

Main Results:

  • The modified APF method, incorporating nonlinear interactions, refines the safety performance signal, particularly at the extremes.
  • The updated weighting of performance indicators emphasizes those with higher potential for nonlinear interactions.
  • The enhanced APF signal provides a more accurate representation of actual safety performance, aiding in deviation identification.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed enhancement to the APF method improves the quantitative assessment of aviation safety performance.
  • Considering nonlinear relationships between safety indicators leads to a more sensitive and accurate safety performance signal.
  • This refined method supports better identification of safety deviations and enhances overall risk management in aviation.