Evaluating Low-Carbon Transportation Technologies When Demand Responds to Price

Area of Science:

• Transportation emissions analysis
• Climate change mitigation strategies
• Techno-economic assessment of vehicles

Background:

• Carbon intensity (CI) is a standard metric for evaluating transportation technologies.
• CI alone is insufficient when travel demand is price-sensitive, potentially leading to emissions target overshoots.
• Decision-makers in industry and government increasingly require robust tools for climate mitigation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a new metric, adjusted carbon intensity (ACI), that incorporates both CI and demand response (DR) to price.
• To evaluate the emissions impact of ethanol-fueled, hybrid, and battery electric vehicles using ACI.
• To assess the effectiveness of these technologies in meeting greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

Main Methods:

• Developed the adjusted carbon intensity (ACI) metric, integrating CI and price-sensitive demand response (DR).
• Applied ACI to evaluate ethanol, hybrid, and battery electric vehicles.
• Modeled technology performance against 2030 and 2050 greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

Main Results:

• All evaluated technologies (ethanol, hybrid, BEV) can contribute to a 40% emissions reduction by 2030.
• Decarbonized battery electric vehicles (BEVs) can meet an 80% emissions reduction target by 2050 when assessed with ACI.
• Using CI alone risks significant emissions target overshoots, particularly in markets with high DR.

Conclusions:

• ACI provides a more accurate assessment of transportation technology emissions impact than CI alone, especially in price-sensitive markets.
• Accelerating low-carbon technology transitions (e.g., 5-10 years) is crucial for mitigating risks associated with DR.
• Faster decarbonization of fuels and vehicle electrification are robust strategies for achieving climate goals.