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Observed poleward freshwater transport since 1970.
Taimoor Sohail1, Jan D Zika2,3,4, Damien B Irving5,6
1School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. t.sohail@unsw.edu.au.
Nature
|February 24, 2022
Summary
Global warming alters the water cycle, making historical changes hard to measure. This study quantifies ocean freshwater transport, finding current climate models underestimate observed poleward movement.
Area of Science:
- Earth System Science
- Oceanography
- Climate Science
Background:
- Global water cycle changes due to warming present significant challenges.
- Quantifying historical water cycle changes is difficult due to limited direct observations, especially over oceans.
- Ocean salinity reflects air-sea freshwater fluxes, with lowest salinity in warmest/coldest regions and highest at intermediate temperatures.
Purpose of the Study:
- To track salinity trends in the warm, salty ocean.
- To quantify observed net poleward freshwater transport in the Earth system from 1970 to 2014.
- To compare observed freshwater transport with climate model simulations (CMIP6).
Main Methods:
- Analysis of ocean salinity trends in warm, salty ocean regions.
- Quantification of poleward freshwater transport rates.
- Comparison of observed rates with simulations from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).
Main Results:
- Poleward freshwater transport from warm to cold ocean regions occurred at 34-62 milli-sverdrups (mSv) between 1970 and 2014.
- This observed rate is not replicated in current CMIP6 climate models.
- CMIP6 models show weaker historical surface flux amplification (0.3-4.6%) compared to observations (3.0-7.4%).
Conclusions:
- Observed poleward freshwater transport provides a historical constraint for climate models.
- Climate models may underestimate the historical amplification of surface freshwater flux.
- Addressing biases in climate models is crucial for accurately predicting future water cycle changes.
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