Urban-rural differences in China's crude death rate changes
Fan Xiao1, Li Mei1, Quanbao Jiang2
1Institute for Population and Development Studies, School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, No.28 Xianning West Road, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
BMC Public Health
|February 26, 2022
Summary
The crude death rate (CDR) decline is influenced by falling age-specific death rates (ASDR) and population aging. Declining ASDR reduces CDR, while an aging population increases it, impacting public health policy.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Analyzes crude death rate (CDR) trends in urban and rural areas from 1982 to 2010.
- Observes significant differences in CDR between urban and rural populations over time.
- Identifies shifts in CDR patterns, with urban rates declining post-1990 and rural rates steadily increasing.
Purpose of the Study:
- To decompose changes in CDR into the effects of age-specific death rates (ASDR) and age structure.
- To analyze regional variations (cities, towns, countryside) in CDR influencing factors.
- To provide insights for public health policy formulation based on demographic trends.
Main Methods:
- Utilizes census data from 1982, 1990, 2000, and 2010.
- Employs decomposition analysis to separate the impacts of ASDR and age structure on CDR.
- Examines temporal and regional differences in the contributions of these factors.
Main Results:
- Declines in ASDR generally reduce CDR, while population aging increases CDR across all regions.
- Differences in ASDR and age structure between urban and rural areas have grown since 1990, with ASDR differences being more significant.
- The 65+ age group increases CDR, while younger age groups (0, 1-14, 15-64) decrease it; the 0-year-old group's impact is notable.
Conclusions:
- The interplay of ASDR and age structure significantly influences CDR trends.
- Future CDR is projected to stabilize or slightly increase by 2020 due to slowing ASDR declines and accelerated population aging.
- Findings underscore the need for tailored public health strategies considering demographic shifts and regional disparities.
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