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China's fertility change: an analysis with multiple measures
Shucai Yang1, Quanbao Jiang2, Jesús J Sánchez-Barricarte3
1School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China.
Population Health Metrics
|April 1, 2022
Summary
China's fertility rates have significantly declined, with adjusted total fertility rates (TFR) falling below 1.5. This trend, influenced by delayed marriage and fewer births, is expected to continue despite policy changes.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Sociology
- Public Health
Background:
- China's period fertility has reached very low levels, with significant decreases in completed cohort fertility rate (CFR).
- Controversy exists regarding the exact fertility rate due to factors like tempo effects and child underreporting.
Purpose of the Study:
- To systematically analyze China's fertility trends since the 1980s.
- To provide adjusted period and cohort fertility measures.
- To address the controversy surrounding China's fertility rates.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of census data (1982-2010) and 1% population sample survey data (1995-2015).
- Utilized period fertility measures, adjusted period fertility measures, cohort fertility measures, and indirect estimation methods.
Main Results:
- Marriage postponement significantly impacts the total fertility rate (TFR) decline.
- Adjusted TFR fell below 1.5, with first-order fertility at 0.9 in 2015.
- Completed cohort fertility rate (CFR) for women aged 45-49 dropped from 5.37 in 1982 to 1.62 in 2015, driven by reductions in higher-order births.
Conclusions:
- Traditional norms of universal marriage and childbearing are shifting in China.
- Fertility rates are steadily declining, confirmed by both period and cohort indicators.
- Fertility may continue to decline post-implementation of the three-child policy.
Keywords:
Completed cohort fertility rateIndirect estimationParity progression ratioTempo effectTotal fertility rateMore Related Videos
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