Quantifying chromosomal instability from intratumoral karyotype diversity using agent-based modeling and Bayesian inference

Chromosomal instability (CIN)-persistent chromosome gain or loss through abnormal mitotic segregation-is a hallmark of cancer that drives aneuploidy. Intrinsic chromosome mis-segregation rate, a measure of CIN, can inform prognosis and is a promising biomarker for response to anti-microtubule agents. However, existing methodologies to measure this rate are labor intensive, indirect, and confounded by selection against aneuploid cells, which reduces observable diversity. We developed a framework to measure CIN, accounting for karyotype selection, using simulations with various levels of CIN and models of selection. To identify the model parameters that best fit karyotype data from single-cell sequencing, we used approximate Bayesian computation to infer mis-segregation rates and karyotype selection. Experimental validation confirmed the extensive chromosome mis-segregation rates caused by the chemotherapy paclitaxel (18.5 ± 0.5/division). Extending this approach to clinical samples revealed that inferred rates fell within direct observations of cancer cell lines. This work provides the necessary framework to quantify CIN in human tumors and develop it as a predictive biomarker.