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Quantifying climate change effects on future forest biomass availability using yield tables improved by mechanistic
Ilié Storms1, Sanne Verdonck1, Bruno Verbist1
1Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, 3001 Leuven, Belgium.
The Science of the Total Environment
|April 15, 2022
Summary
Forest productivity is increasing due to climate change, boosting carbon sequestration and wood availability. New methods improve yield predictions for a sustainable bioeconomy.
Area of Science:
- Forestry science
- Climate change adaptation
- Bioeconomy
Background:
- Forests are vital for climate mitigation and transitioning to a circular bioeconomy.
- Accurate forest productivity estimates are essential for carbon sequestration and wood supply predictions.
- Traditional empirical yield tables may be outdated due to climate change impacts on forest growth.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a methodology for enhancing existing forest yield tables.
- To incorporate climate-sensitive projections into forest growth modeling.
- To provide reliable estimates of future forest productivity and biomass potential.
Main Methods:
- Utilized scaling functions derived from process-based modeling (PBM).
- Integrated PBM with empirical stand data for 11 tree species in the Netherlands and Flanders.
- Analyzed climate-sensitive growth trends and their impact on biomass projections.
Main Results:
- Forest stand productivity in Flanders increased by 13% between 1987-2016 compared to 1961-1990.
- Positive growth trends are projected to continue across species and conditions.
- Local site variability significantly influences forest response to climate change.
Conclusions:
- The proposed methodology improves future forest productivity and biomass estimates.
- Projections indicate a 7% increase in standing stock and a 22% increase in harvestable woody biomass by 2050.
- Enhanced estimates support integrating forests into climate-smart circular bioeconomy strategies.
