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Modeling Transmission Dynamics and Risk Assessment for COVID-19 in Namibia Using Geospatial Technologies
Kedir Mohammed Bushira1, Jacob Otieno Ongala2
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Namibia University of Science and Technology (NUST), Windhoek, Namibia.
Transactions of the Indian National Academy of Engineering : an International Journal of Engineering and Technology
|July 15, 2022
Summary
This study mapped COVID-19 risk zones in Namibia using geospatial technology. A 30% mobility reduction effectively flattened the curve, aiding resource planning for future interventions.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Geospatial analysis
- Public health
Background:
- SARS-CoV-2 infections are rising globally and in Namibia.
- Effective resource allocation and intervention planning require accurate risk assessment and future modeling.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify and map COVID-19 risk zones in Namibia.
- To model future COVID-19 responses using geospatial technologies and mobility restriction scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Geospatial technologies, including ArcGIS overlay analysis, were employed.
- Population density, current infections, and spatial interaction index were used for risk zoning.
- The COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics (CHIME) tool modeled future scenarios with mobility restrictions.
Main Results:
- Six COVID-19 risk zones were identified: highest, higher, high, low, lower, and lowest.
- Current infection rates and spatial mobility were dominant factors in risk zoning.
- A 30% reduction in national mobility notably flattened the peak number of COVID-19 cases and delayed the peak.
Conclusions:
- Geospatial analysis effectively identified COVID-19 risk zones in Namibia.
- Mobility restrictions demonstrate significant potential for controlling COVID-19 spread.
- Findings support policy-makers in resource estimation and intervention planning for COVID-19 in Namibia.
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