Tracking malaria health disbursements by source in Zambia, 2009-2018: an economic modelling study

Zambia has made profound strides in reducing both the incidence and prevalence of malaria followed by reducing malaria related deaths between 2009 and 2018. The number of partners providing malaria funding has significantly increased in the same period. The increasing number of partners and the subsequent reduction of the number of reported malaria cases in the Ministry of Health main data repository Health Management Information System (HMIS) stimulated this research. The study aimed at (1) identifying major sources of malaria funding in Zambia; (2) describe malaria funding per targeted interventions and (3) relating malaria funding with malaria disease burden.

Data was collected using extensive literature review of institutional strategic document between the year 2009 to 2018, assuming one-year time lag between investment and the health outcome across all interventions. The National's Health Management Information System (HMIS) provided information on annual malaria admission cases and outpatient clinic record. The statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) alongside Microsoft excel was used to analyze data in the year 2019.

The investigation observed that about 30% of the funding came from PMI/USAID, 26% from the global funds, the government of Zambia contributed 17% and other partners sharing the remaining 27%. Multivariate regression analysis suggests a positive correlation between reducing reported malaria disease burden in HMIS 2009-2018 and concurrent increasing program/intervention funding towards ITNs, IRS, MDA, and Case Management with r² = 77% (r² > 0.77; 95% CI: 0.72-0.81). Furthermore, IRS showed a p-value 0.018 while ITNs, Case Management and MDA having 0.029, 0.030 and 0.040 respectively.

Our findings highlight annual funding towards specific malaria intervention reduced the number of malaria admission cases.