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Updated: Aug 30, 2025

Quantification and Whole Genome Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in Wastewater and Air Samples
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Statistical Challenges in Tracking the Evolution of SARS-CoV-2.

Lorenzo Cappello1, Jaehee Kim2, Sifan Liu3

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Statistical Science : a Review Journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics
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Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) tracks virus evolution and spread. This study reviews methods for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 and proposes new ways to track emerging variants.

Keywords:
Bayesian nonparametricsPhylodynamicsSIR modelsbirth-death processescoalescentgenetic epidemiology

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Area of Science:

  • Genomics
  • Epidemiology
  • Computational Biology

Background:

  • Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 is crucial for understanding pandemic dynamics.
  • Phylodynamic methods analyze viral sequences to reveal origins, transmission, and evolution.
  • Despite global efforts, challenges persist in data analysis and interpretation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To describe current models and methods for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 spread.
  • To discuss existing and novel statistical challenges in genomic data analysis.
  • To propose a method for tracking the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Main Methods:

  • Review of existing genomic surveillance models and phylodynamic approaches.
  • Discussion of statistical challenges in analyzing large-scale viral sequence data.
  • Development and proposal of a novel method for variant tracking.

Main Results:

  • Current methods provide insights into virus origin, evolutionary rate, and transmission patterns.
  • Significant statistical challenges remain in interpreting complex genomic datasets.
  • A proposed method aims to improve the tracking of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Conclusions:

  • Genomic surveillance and phylodynamics are vital tools for pandemic response.
  • Addressing statistical challenges is key to effective data interpretation.
  • Improved methods are needed to rapidly identify and track emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.