Local area population projections dataset for Australia.

Area of Science:

• Demography and Population Studies
• Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
• Statistical Modelling

Background:

• Local area population projections in Australia are typically inconsistent due to varying methodologies and data sources used by different state/territory governments.
• Accurate and consistent local population data is crucial for effective planning across various sectors.

Purpose of the Study:

• To introduce a new, nationally consistent dataset of population projections for Australian SA3 (Statistical Area Level 3) regions.
• To provide detailed, age-sex specific population projections from 2020 to 2035.
• To demonstrate the utility of a novel, cost-effective projection model for local area demographics.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the synthetic migration cohort-component model, a novel approach requiring less input data, reducing costs and production time.
• Projections are based on 2020 Estimated Resident Populations from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
• Age-sex projections are constrained by national-level projections and local total population projections.

Main Results:

• A comprehensive dataset of population projections for all Australian SA3 areas (population 30,000-130,000) is now available.
• The synthetic migration model demonstrated respectable forecast accuracy, outperforming simpler projection models.
• The dataset provides projections by sex and five-year age groups up to 85+ in five-year intervals.

Conclusions:

• The nationally consistent dataset offers a valuable resource for diverse local area planning and policy applications.
• The synthetic migration cohort-component model provides an efficient and accurate method for generating local population projections.
• This data supports evidence-based decision-making in areas such as infrastructure, social services, and economic development.