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Disorder or a new order: How climate change affects phenological variability.

Michael Stemkovski1,2, James R Bell3, Elizabeth R Ellwood4,5

  • 1Department of Biology & Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA.

Ecology
|October 6, 2022
PubMed
Summary

Climate change advances spring phenology, but interannual variability remains stable. While leaf-out and flowering show reduced variability over time, overall phenological patterns are not fundamentally altered by warming trends.

Keywords:
birdsdeviationflowersinsectsinterannual variabilityphenophaseplantsseasonality variance

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Change Biology
  • Phenology

Background:

  • Anthropogenic climate change is advancing spring phenology across species.
  • The impact of climate change on year-to-year phenological variability is not well understood.
  • Phenological timings are critical for species adaptation to abiotic and biotic factors.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and interannual variability.
  • To investigate the impact of climate change on phenological patterns.
  • To assess changes in nearly 10,000 long-term phenology time series across the Northern Hemisphere.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of nearly 10,000 phenology time series from over 1000 species.
  • Examination of leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival timings.
  • Assessment of temperature sensitivity and interannual variability in phenological events.

Main Results:

  • Leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival are most sensitive to temperature.
  • Phenological events advanced fastest in early-season species in colder, less seasonal regions.
  • No evidence of changing variability in warmer years; leaf-out and flower phenology became less variable.

Conclusions:

  • Climate change has not fundamentally altered interannual phenological variability to date.
  • Changes in phenological variability patterns may disrupt species adaptations and interactions.
  • Further research is needed to understand long-term impacts on ecological synchrony.