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Assessing natural global catastrophic risks
1Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, PO Box 40364, Washington, DC 20016 USA.
Natural Hazards (Dordrecht, Netherlands)
|October 17, 2022
Summary
Natural global catastrophes pose a significant threat, contrary to historical assumptions. This research re-evaluates natural global catastrophic risks (GCRs), emphasizing their potential impact on modern civilization.
Area of Science:
- Earth and Planetary Sciences
- Astronomy
- Epidemiology
- Climatology
Background:
- Historical analyses of natural global catastrophic risks (GCRs) often dismiss their modern relevance based on deep human history.
- This perspective overlooks the unique vulnerabilities of contemporary global civilization to natural hazards.
Purpose of the Study:
- To challenge the assumption that past survival negates future natural GCRs.
- To refine the theory of natural GCRs and analyze their potential impact.
- To explore implications for decision-making and future research.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of various natural GCRs including climate change, pandemics, near-Earth objects, space weather, stellar explosions, and volcanic eruptions.
- Examination of the interplay between natural hazards and human civilization.
- Critique of historical arguments against the significance of natural GCRs.
Main Results:
- Natural GCRs may pose a larger risk than previously estimated.
- Many natural GCR scenarios have a high ongoing probability.
- Historical data offers limited insight into the resilience of modern civilization to GCRs.
- Natural GCRs frequently involve critical interactions with human systems.
Conclusions:
- Natural GCRs should not be dismissed based on deep human history.
- Future research and risk assessment must incorporate the human dimensions of natural GCRs.
- The distinction between natural and anthropogenic GCRs may warrant reconsideration.
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