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Assessing natural global catastrophic risks.

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  • 1Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, PO Box 40364, Washington, DC 20016 USA.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Natural global catastrophes pose a significant threat, contrary to historical assumptions. This research re-evaluates natural global catastrophic risks (GCRs), emphasizing their potential impact on modern civilization.

Keywords:
Climate changeGlobal catastrophic riskNear-earth objectsPandemicsSpace weatherStellar explosionsVolcanic eruptions

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Area of Science:

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences
  • Astronomy
  • Epidemiology
  • Climatology

Background:

  • Historical analyses of natural global catastrophic risks (GCRs) often dismiss their modern relevance based on deep human history.
  • This perspective overlooks the unique vulnerabilities of contemporary global civilization to natural hazards.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To challenge the assumption that past survival negates future natural GCRs.
  • To refine the theory of natural GCRs and analyze their potential impact.
  • To explore implications for decision-making and future research.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of various natural GCRs including climate change, pandemics, near-Earth objects, space weather, stellar explosions, and volcanic eruptions.
  • Examination of the interplay between natural hazards and human civilization.
  • Critique of historical arguments against the significance of natural GCRs.

Main Results:

  • Natural GCRs may pose a larger risk than previously estimated.
  • Many natural GCR scenarios have a high ongoing probability.
  • Historical data offers limited insight into the resilience of modern civilization to GCRs.
  • Natural GCRs frequently involve critical interactions with human systems.

Conclusions:

  • Natural GCRs should not be dismissed based on deep human history.
  • Future research and risk assessment must incorporate the human dimensions of natural GCRs.
  • The distinction between natural and anthropogenic GCRs may warrant reconsideration.