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Applying the AHP to Conflict Resolution: A Russia-NATO Case Study.

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|October 19, 2022
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Summary

This study introduces a novel Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model for equitable conflict resolution in negotiations, optimizing concessions for mutual gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Keywords:
Analytic hierarchy processConflict resolutionMulti-criteria decision makingNegotiationsRussia–Ukraine conflict

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Area of Science:

  • Operations Research
  • Conflict Resolution Studies
  • International Relations

Background:

  • The Russia-Ukraine conflict presents complex negotiation challenges.
  • Traditional negotiation models may not adequately address equitable concession trading.
  • Optimizing outcomes requires a structured approach to evaluating concessions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To apply the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for conflict resolution.
  • To model negotiation criteria, strategies, and concessions for the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
  • To develop a method for equitable concession trading that maximizes mutual gain.

Main Methods:

  • Development of AHP models for evaluation criteria and concessions.
  • Utilizing ratings to assess concession impact on conflict resolution.
  • Calculating gain ratios to determine benefit-cost scores for concessions.
  • Employing Max-Min optimization to balance gains and minimize disparity.

Main Results:

  • The AHP approach provides a framework for evaluating and trading concessions.
  • Gain ratios and benefit-cost scores facilitate equitable solutions.
  • Demonstrates that not all concessions may be traded simultaneously.
  • Max-Min optimization successfully maximizes joint gains while minimizing disparity.

Conclusions:

  • The AHP approach offers a systematic method for complex conflict resolution.
  • Equitable concession trading is achievable through structured benefit-cost analysis.
  • The Max-Min optimization ensures fairness and maximizes mutual benefit in negotiations.