Prediction of frozen virus stability based on degradation mechanisms, real-time data and modeling

Aim: Critical virus reagents in regulated bioanalytical assays require stability monitoring. Although stability at ultra-low frozen temperatures is generally assumed, published data are limited and real-time studies are time consuming. Materials & methods: The authors reviewed literature data, typical mechanisms of molecular degradation, glass transition temperatures of commonly used buffers and available real-time storage data to model frozen virus reagent stability. Results: Storage at ultra-low temperatures below the glass transition temperature was critical for virus stability. Modeling of real-time data suggested that virus potency remained within 0.5 log₁₀ of its starting potency at a probability of >99, 90 and 73% after 10, 20 and 30 years, respectively. Conclusion: The study supports the practice of virus storage at -70°C or below for 20-30 years.