Reliable Cognitive Decline in Late-Life Major Depression

Major depression in older adults increases the statistical likelihood of dementia. It is challenging to translate statistical evidence of cognitive decline at the group level into knowledge of individual cognitive outcomes. The objective of the current study is to investigate 2-year reliable cognitive change in late-life depression (LLD), which will enhance understanding of cognitive changes in LLD and provide a means to assess individual change.

In a sample of non-depressed cognitively normal older adults or NDCN (n = 113), we used linear regression to predict tests of global cognition, processing speed-executive functioning, and memory administered 1 and 2 years later. Stepwise regression was used to select covariates among demographics and raw test scores (either baseline or year 1) and we cross-validated the final models using the predicted residual error sum of squares (PRESS). We then derived a z-change score from the difference between actual and predicted follow-up scores and investigated the proportion of LLD patients (n = 199) and NDCN adults who experienced reliable "decline" (a z-score < -1.645), "stability" (z-scores between + - 1.645), and "improvement" (z scores > +1.645).

A greater proportion LLD compared with NDCN experienced cognitive decline in processing speed/executive functioning and global cognition over 2 years. When compared to NDCN, a greater proportion of LLD also significantly improved on one test of processing speed over 2 years.

Older adults with LLD are at risk of meaningful cognitive decline over a relatively short period, particularly in the domain of executive functioning and processing speed. This study provides a series of reliable change equations for common neuropsychological tests that can be applied clinically.